Coming off another disappointing road trip the Aggies have slipped from second to third behind Boise State who has one game remaining. Boise State had a midseason swoon in which they lost six of seven games but have rebounded with five in a row including four straight conference games to move into second place. The Broncos finish up with a home game against San Jose State and can finish 10-6. There are two games left for the Aggies and they face Utah State and Nevada at home. They can finish 10-6 and if they do, they'll earn the 2-seed due winning the tiebreaker with Boise State. The two teams split their regular season meetings but the Aggies would earn the 2-seed in this scenario because they would have spit with Utah State while the Broncos were swept by USU.
The armageddon scenario for the WAC would be the one in which Hawai'i and Nevada both win their final two games to finish 9-7, New Mexico State splits and finishes 9-7 (beating Utah State and losing to Nevada), Idaho defeats Fresno State to finish 9-7 and Boise State loses to San Jose State to finish 9-7. That would render a 5-way tie for second place.
The first tiebreaker when there are more than two teams tied is to look at each teams' head-to-head record against the teams they are tied with. In this scenario the records would be as follows:
Boise State: 5-3 (swept Idaho, split with Nevada, New Mexico State, Hawai'i)
New Mexico State: 4-4 (swept Idaho, split with Boise State, Hawai'i, swept by Nevada)
Idaho: 4-4 (swept Hawai'i and Nevada, swept by Boise State and New Mexico State)
Nevada: 4-4 (swept New Mexico State, split with Boise State and Hawai'i, swept by Idaho)
Hawai'i: 3-5 (split with Boise State, Nevada and New Mexico State, swept by Idaho)
In this scenario Boise State would earn the 2-seed by virtue of finishing with the best head-to-head record among the four other teams they're tied with. Hawai'i would be seeded 6th because of a 3-5 record against the other four teams.
Here's where it gets tricky. NMSU, Idaho and Nevada would each sport a 4-4 record against the other four teams with NMSU sweeping Idaho, Idaho sweeping Nevada and Nevada sweeping New Mexico State. According to Jason Erickson, the WAC's men's basketball media relations director, in that case then the three teams' records against the team starting from first place down would examined (in this case Utah State). Since Idaho and New Mexico State both split with the Utags and NMSU split with Boise State and Idaho was swept, NMSU would earn the 3-seed, Idaho the 4-seed and Nevada the 5-seed (UI would own the head-to-head tiebreaker with Nevada).
The Aggie men control their own destiny. Win out and they earn the 2-seed if they don't then things look like this:
2-seed: Aggies win out
2-seed: Aggies defeat USU, lose to Nevada, BSU loses to SJSU, Nevada loses to LA Tech
3-seed: Aggies defeat USU, lose to Nevada, BSU loses to SJSU, Nevada defeats to LA Tech, Idaho loses to Fresno State
3-seed: Aggies defeat USU, lose to Nevada, Nevada defeats LA Tech, Idaho defeats Fresno State, BSU defeats SJSU
3-seed: Aggies lose to USU, defeat Nevada and BSU loses to SJSU (BSU wins tie-breaker due to sweep of Fresno State)
3-seed: Aggies lose to USU, defeat Nevada, BSU defeats SJSU
4-seed: Aggies defeat USU, lose to Nevada, Nevada defeats LA Tech, Idaho defeats Fresno State (Aggies own head-to-head tiebreaker with Idaho)
4-seed: Aggies defeat USU, lose to Nevada, Nevada defeats LA Tech, BSU loses to SJSU, Idaho defeats Fresno State
4-seed: Aggies lose to USU and Nevada, Nevada defeats LA Tech, Idaho loses to Fresno State
5-seed: Aggies lose to USU and Nevada, Nevada defeats LA Tech, Idaho defeats Fresno State
That's our best guess of the scenarios. There's probably a scenario or two that we missed but that's about the gist of it. Hopefully the Aggies just win out and avoid all this mess.
You can examine the tiebreaker rules after the jump. Continue Reading This Post >>