With two games left this week Nevada has wrapped up the number one seed in the WAC tournament. What remains for the Aggies is either a 2-seed or a 3-seed depending on how they finish the final two games of the regular season. With a two-game lead over Idaho in the standings and Idaho heading to Honolulu on Thursday, it appears that the 2-seed is a virtual lock. However, anything can happen and so with that in mind here are the seeding scenarios for the Aggies:
If Nevada were to lose to both New Mexico State and Louisiana Tech they would still earn the 1-seed due to a sweep of Hawai'i. The Aggies and Wolf Pack would have split the head-to-head meetings and both teams split with Idaho. (WAC Tiebreaker Regulation 4). The Aggies would face Fresno State in the first round.
The Aggies would face Louisiana Tech in the 1st round if the loss came to Fresno State AND Fresno State also defeated Louisiana Tech (the two teams meet Thursday). If the loss came to Nevada the Aggies would face Fresno State in the 1st round.
The Aggies would earn 2-seed if Idaho lost at either Hawai'i (Thursday) or San Jose State (Saturday). The Aggies would face Louisiana Tech in the 1st round if Louisiana Tech lost to Fresno State on Thursday but would face Fresno State if Louisiana Tech were to defeat Fresno State on Thursday.
Not exactly the kind of momentum the Aggies would want heading into the WAC Tournament but the Aggies went 0-2 in the final week of the season in 2009-10 and wound up winning the WAC Tournament.
The Aggies earn 3-seed in this scenario if Idaho were to go 2-0 this week defeating Hawai'i and San Jose State. The Aggies and Vandals split the regular season meetings but Idaho would own the tiebreaker due to their split with Nevada. (WAC Tiebreaker Regulation 3). The Aggies face Louisiana Tech if Fresno State defeats Louisiana Tech on Thursday. The Aggies face Fresno State if they lose to Louisiana Tech.
Interestingly enough in the six seasons New Mexico State has been in the WAC only once have they won the final two conference games and that was in 2007-08 (they finished in a four-way tie for first, Coach Menzies' first season). They've gone 1-1 four times and 0-2 once-- in 2009-10 and that year they won the WAC tournament.
Also interesting is that in four of the six seasons the Aggies have faced their first round opponent in the WAC tournament in the final week of the regular season. It has gone well for New Mexico State as they've won all four of those meetings, Hawai'i in 2005-06, Louisiana Tech in 2006-07, Boise State in 2008-09 and Nevada last season.